Twentieth Century Chronicle

Page 228

Because German unification changed the geopolitical landscape of Europe, Russia was able to break the Eastern European order established after the Crimean War and expand into the Balkans once again. After German unification, the Ottoman Empire was left with only a small area around Constantinople and was almost completely driven out of Europe.

The reason the Ottomans were able to control the straits was that the Austro-Hungarian Empire did not want Russian influence to extend into the Mediterranean. The Austro-Hungarian Empire was already struggling to compete with Italy for control of the Adriatic Sea. If the Russians were to appear on the Mediterranean coast, then the Austro-Hungarian Empire would probably become a landlocked country under the combined pressure from Italy and Russia.

Therefore, the disintegration of the Three Emperors' League was actually in the interest of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. After its collapse, Austria-Hungary effectively replaced France and Britain in supporting the Ottoman Empire against Russian expansion. This is also the root cause of Nicholas II's attempt to shift the focus of expansion to the Far East after he came to power, as he feared that the Balkan issue would turn into a second Crimean War, triggering a European coalition against Russia.

Nicholas II, however, did not anticipate that Russia's expansion in the Far East would also be met with intervention from the great powers, and this time Russia suffered an even greater loss of face than in the Crimean War. The defeat in the Crimean War almost made Russians believe they were facing national extinction, instilling in them awe of British power. But this defeat in the Far East, however, fueled widespread anger among Russians at the incompetence of the Tsarist government. This defeat in the Far East did not pose a threat to Russians in Europe and Russia; it only brought them shame.

It was this public anger that led to the 1906 Revolution. Although the Tsarist government ultimately suppressed the revolution with the support of Britain and France and the betrayal of the revolution by bourgeois elements, the social consensus in Russia had been torn apart. The Russian proletariat no longer recognized the Tsar as representing them. Although the Stolypin cabinet, which came to power after the revolution, began to implement political and economic reforms, the only thing it could use to rally public support was nationalism.

Under these domestic circumstances, the concept of a Greater Slavic Union gradually became a new social consensus in Russia. The Greater Slavic Union actually refers to East Slavism, represented by Russia; West Slavism, represented by Poland and the Czech Republic; and Yugoslavia, comprised of the Balkan states. Russian Greater Slavism aimed to merge these three Slavic groups into a single Greater Slavic Empire.

In reality, this dream of a Slavic empire began after the Napoleonic Wars and was shattered in the Crimean War. However, in order to cope with the failure of the Tsar's rule due to the disastrous defeat in the Far East war, the idea of ​​a Greater Slavic Union was used by the Russian upper class as a banner to deceive the people.

West Slavia no longer exists in reality, as the entire West Slavic territory has been partitioned by Russia, Germany, and Austria-Hungary. The Russians were simply unable to resist the combined forces of Germany and Austria-Hungary to reclaim the West Slavic lands from these two countries. Therefore, supporters of the Greater Slavic Union are more concerned with the ownership of the Balkan Peninsula, where Yugoslavia is located.

Since Germany does not border the Balkans, Russia's opponents in the Balkans were the internally conflicted Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empire, known as the "Sick Man of Europe." For Russia, as long as it could avoid interference from external powers in the Balkans, it would undoubtedly be in a strong position against both the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman Empires.

In the past, Russia's main rival in the Balkans was actually the Ottoman Empire. After all, Russia's primary strategic goal was to capture Constantinople and thus control the passage to the Mediterranean, rather than to compete with Austria-Hungary for Serbia. However, with the construction and opening of the Berlin-Vienna-Constantinople railway, a continuous barrier was erected, completely blocking the Russian Empire's expansion into the Mediterranean.

Faced with this railway, even a fool would know that when Russia attacked the Straits region, Germany and Austria-Hungary would not stand idly by, because Germany and Austria-Hungary did indeed have interests in the Straits. If Russia controlled the Straits region, it would be tantamount to cutting off Germany and Austria-Hungary's land route to Asia. Therefore, the struggle between Russia and Austria-Hungary over Serbia began to surpass the conflict between Russia and the Ottoman Empire over the Straits region.

The Russians' intuition was that if Austria-Hungary refused to relinquish control of Serbia, then when Russia attacked the straits, the railway would inevitably supply Constantinople with a large amount of supplies. In that case, Russia would be facing the Ottoman Empire, supported by Britain and Germany, which would be a repeat of the Crimean War, except that Germany would have replaced France.

After Stolypin seized power, although he focused on domestic political and economic reforms, he inevitably compromised with Pan-Slavism in order to gain political support. This led to increased Russian activity in the Balkans, and with the support of Russian Pan-Slavists, Serbia's politics began to face a crisis.

As early as 1903, Pan-Slavists staged a coup in Serbia, ousting the pro-Austrian king and actively establishing contact with Russia. This naturally aroused the dissatisfaction of the Austrians, but at this time, the Austro-Hungarian Empire feared the power of Russia and therefore did not dare to take any major actions in Serbia, for fear that the Russians would use this as an excuse to start a war.

However, with Russia's defeat in the Far East and the outbreak of revolution within its borders, the image of the Russian Empire plummeted in Europe. Realizing that the Russian Empire could no longer be considered the gendarmerie of Europe, Austro-Hungarian nationalists decided to annex Serbia as soon as possible, thereby resolving this potential threat of war between the Austro-Hungarian and Russian Empires.

Initially, Austria-Hungary only imposed a trade blockade on Serbia, since Serbia had no access to the sea and could only rely on Austria-Hungary for import and export goods. Although Russia had failed in the Far East, the Turks were also unwilling for Austria-Hungary to annex Serbia and make it their land neighbor, since Austria-Hungary was not a benevolent country.

However, a revolution also broke out within Turkey at this time. Discontent with the monarchical rule led some young Turkish officers to attempt a military coup to reform the increasingly corrupt and declining Ottoman Empire. As a result, in 1908, Austria-Hungary decided to formally annex Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Austria-Hungary's decision greatly angered Serbs and Russian Pan-Slavists, and at one point, war sentiment arose. However, with the support of Germany, Austria-Hungary did not back down and in February 09, it reached a separate agreement with Turkey, exchanging £2500 million for Turkey's nominal sovereignty over the two territories.

In January, German Chief of the General Staff Moltke the Younger telegraphed the Austrian Chief of the General Staff, stating that even without a direct Russian attack on Austria leading to war, Germany would fulfill its alliance obligations. This effectively supported Austria-Hungary's war with Serbia. Faced with this war crisis, Britain and France began urging Russia to concede, believing that Russia was not suited to resume hostilities at this time. They argued that war would entangle Britain and France in the Balkans, which was clearly not in their interests.

Britain and France needed Russia to weaken Germany, not a proxy war in the Balkans. Such a war would neither curb German ambitions nor allow Britain and France to leverage their maritime dominance. This was because Britain and France did not perceive the Bosnian crisis as an invasion of Russia by Austria-Hungary, but rather as a consequence of Russian ambitions forcing Austria-Hungary into war.

In the previous Far East war, the British and French propaganda attacks on Russia had not yet transformed Russia's image from a disruptor of order to a defender of order. Therefore, the Russo-Austrian War caused by the Bosnian crisis, which escalated into a major war between two camps, obviously could not gain the support of British and French public opinion.

On March 22, the Tsar telegraphed Wilhelm II, making concessions and withdrawing support for Serbia. On March 31, the Serbian government recognized Austria-Hungary's annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, finally ending the Bosnian crisis. However, this crisis accelerated the course of the European war. Through the Bosnian crisis, Russia finally chose Austria-Hungary as its primary enemy in the Balkans, further solidifying the Triple Entente and forming the Entente Powers.

The victory in Bosnia and Herzegovina spurred Austro-Hungarian ambitions toward the Greek region, prompting them to attempt further expansion toward the Straits, ultimately turning the area between Vienna and Constantinople into imperial territory and effectively shutting out the Russians from the Mediterranean. This greatly increased Austro-Hungarian interest in instigating a war in the Balkans.

Italy was the only country uninterested in the war, as it had gained nothing from the Bosnian crisis, and Austria-Hungary's expansion in the Balkans actually threatened Italian influence in the Mediterranean. Although the British fleet controlled the Mediterranean, the region's waters were still occupied by France, Italy, and the Ottoman Empire, leaving Austria-Hungary with virtually no real power.

However, once Austria-Hungary expanded its influence to the Aegean Sea, it immediately became a major power in the eastern Mediterranean. Encircled by Britain, France, and Austria-Hungary, the Italians had little to do in the Mediterranean. Therefore, although the conflict between Italy and France remained unresolved, the expansion of Austria-Hungary's power in the Balkans led to an escalation of tensions between Italy and Austria-Hungary.

The situation in Europe was so complex that even the slightest spark could ignite a major war that would engulf the entire continent. Naturally, the British couldn't afford to devote vast resources to East Asia just to guard against Japanese ambitions. Therefore, the concerns of some British diplomats regarding Sino-Japanese cooperation were ultimately shelved in London. This implied that London didn't have the energy to focus on their issues, and they were better off doing nothing and causing trouble for London.

For the Americans, while the European issue made the US government nervous, it was separated by the Atlantic Ocean, so as long as the Americans remained cautious and neutral, they wouldn't be drawn into the war. However, the Americans genuinely wanted to sabotage the Japan-China cooperation across the Pacific, but with the US economic center on the East Coast of America, too far from East Asia, the US simply couldn't do anything about it.

The Philippines has been under American rule for ten years, but American control over the Philippines remains unstable. Initially, the United States relied on military conquest to eliminate resistance forces in the Philippines, similar to how the US westward expansion policy treated Native Americans. By depriving Filipinos of control over their land, the US established an American-style Philippine government, much like the administration of the Hawaiian Islands.

However, it is clear that the Philippines is much larger and has a much larger population than the Hawaiian Islands. Moreover, the Filipinos and the Spanish have been fighting for centuries, and their fighting strength is far superior to that of the docile Hawaiian natives. Therefore, although the US military defeated organized Filipino resistance forces on the main battlefield, it did not eliminate the guerrilla warfare of the Filipino people.

After the Japanese forced the United States to voluntarily relinquish Mindanao, the island with the most insurgents, the Americans realized that the old colonial methods were no longer sufficient for American rule over the Philippines. As a result, the Americans began to revise their colonial policies toward the Filipinos. On the one hand, they politically courted the island's property owners to cooperate with the US government, and on the other hand, they economically suppressed the Chinese.

Unlike other colonial powers, the Americans did not need the Chinese as intermediaries in economic colonization. Relying on their own industrial capabilities, the Americans could completely crush the Philippines' backward plantation economy, thereby forcing the Philippines to become a source of raw materials and a market for American capital.

To be fair, the new colonial policy of the United States was effective. After the Filipino propertied class received democracy from the Americans, they lost interest in the national liberation movement. After all, their own interests had been protected by democratic politics. The underdeveloped industrial base of the Philippines meant that the propertied class was almost entirely composed of landowners. Therefore, the dumping of goods by the Americans did not have a significant impact on the landowners. On the contrary, it allowed them to obtain higher incomes through trade with the United States.

The American crackdown on Chinese businesses in the Philippines severely damaged the country's internal economic ties, which had previously been linked by Chinese merchants. With these ties broken, the Philippines' local economy became fragmented and more susceptible to American capital control.

However, at this time, a resistance force suddenly emerged among the lower classes in the Philippines, calling for land reform. Although this resistance force set its goal as the liberation of the Filipino nation, in reality, their main targets were not the US military, but the local large landowners. They demanded that the large landowners distribute their land equally to the farmers and called for resistance against American goods.

This slogan garnered support from landless farmers, unemployed workers, and artisans in the Philippines, quickly spreading the organization throughout the island and overshadowing the previous Philippine national anti-Western independence movement. The situation in the Philippine archipelago once again spiraled out of control, leading to a renewed surge in opposition to the occupation of the Philippines within the United States. Under these circumstances, the US government had to adopt a cautious stance regarding any potential disruption to Sino-Japanese cooperation.

Chapter 729

Author: Fuchun Mountain Residence Number: 5038 Comments: 0 Update Date: 2023-09-07 13:13:21

In February 2009, the Japanese Navy proposed to hold a joint East Asian maritime military exercise with the Chinese Navy to jointly maintain maritime navigation security in East Asia. This invitation was quickly responded to by the Chinese Navy. Japan then designated the maritime exercise as an East Asian maritime security exercise and extended invitations to countries such as the United Kingdom, France, the United States, Germany, and Russia to observe the exercise.

The Sino-Japanese naval exercises further fueled the great powers' concerns about the East Asian order. At the same time, the Yamamoto Cabinet suddenly issued a statement supporting the Chinese government's renegotiation of tariff autonomy with other countries. The Chinese National Assembly also subsequently stated that the Chinese people support the conclusion of equal treaties between countries to maintain world peace and that those unequal treaties of the past should be abolished, thereby easing tensions between countries.

Although the Chinese parliament's statement indirectly supported Japan's and other countries' position on revising the treaties, it undoubtedly raised questions about some issues in Japan-South Korea relations and Japan-China relations, which caused considerable dissatisfaction in Japanese public opinion. As a result, some newspapers attacked the Yamamoto cabinet for being too weak in foreign relations.

However, public opinion was not overwhelmingly in favor of either side. Newspapers under the Navy’s control, which aimed at Asian cooperation, believed that the Yamamoto Cabinet’s support for Japan-China reconciliation was a strategic vision. They argued that what Japan needed at the moment was not to show its courage in front of weaker countries, but to find ways to solve Japan’s economic development problems. Only economic development could solve the food shortage caused by Japan’s population growth.

Although such rhetoric failed to satisfy students and nationalists, it garnered support from workers and businessmen. The Yamamoto Cabinet subsequently introduced a policy to protect Japan's self-sufficiency rate in staple foods and to impose protective tariffs on imported rice. This immediately gained the support of a large number of farmers. Even the landowning class, who had previously been dissatisfied with the Yamamoto Cabinet due to land reform, chose to support Prime Minister Yamamoto this time.

Conversely, the army, which has always claimed to be a protector of farmers, has this time actively opposed rice import tariffs and stood with the zaibatsu (financial conglomerates). The reason why the army jumped out so eagerly is that both Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula are rice-producing areas. Taiwan is relatively small because it is suitable for sugarcane cultivation, so its rice production is not high. The Korean Peninsula, on the other hand, happens to be a famous rice-producing area, with rice of even better quality than Japanese rice.

Importing rice from the Korean Peninsula to the Japanese archipelago was a project actively planned by the Army. Besides this industry, the Army couldn't find any other way to quickly plunder wealth from Korea. The Yamamoto Cabinet's increase in import tariffs on overseas rice effectively shut out rice from North Korea and Taiwan, because according to the Yamamoto Cabinet's wording, any region outside the administrative jurisdiction of the Japanese Cabinet should be considered overseas.

Even if North Korean labor costs are lower than Japanese labor costs, they cannot compete with Japanese farmers under protective tariffs, so this bill naturally received support from Japanese farmers. While urban residents were concerned about rising rice prices, the Yamamoto Cabinet amended the Minimum Wage Law to ensure that wage increases kept pace with inflation. Furthermore, the Yamamoto Cabinet stated its intention to encourage the development of the food processing industry and implemented a temporary tax exemption policy for imported food other than rice. This means that if citizens ate noodles instead of rice, their quality of life would not decline.

These two policies pleased the farmers without completely enraging the citizens. The only ones who felt their interests were harmed were the zaibatsu (financial conglomerates) operating rice industries in Taiwan and Korea, and the army with significant interests in overseas colonies. The army also suddenly realized that Mindanao, under naval control, was completely unaffected by rice tariffs because it was a rice-importing region whose main industry was tropical cash crops. Therefore, it was the army's territory that suffered the losses.

Even Minister Tamura, who advocated cooperation with the navy, became dissatisfied with the Yamamoto cabinet, as his interests, as part of the army, were also affected. Under these circumstances, Tamura had no choice but to acquiesce to a plan proposed within the army: to stir up trouble on the Korean Peninsula and undermine the peace between Japan and China.

This idea was proposed by Katsura Taro, Terauchi Masatake, and others, and the specific plan was completed by younger officers like Tanaka Giichi. The general plan was to have the Korean garrison carry out a sweeping operation in Hamgyong Province, breaking the previous agreement reached with the Chinese, namely that Japan would not attack the areas controlled by the Korean Volunteer Army in the north, and that the Chinese side would also restrain the Korean Volunteer Army from launching attacks on Japanese-controlled northern coastal cities.

Japan's most effective control over the Korean Peninsula was over the plains south of the Han River. This region has been Korea's grain-producing area since ancient times and is also the wealthiest place in Korea, similar to the Jiangnan region of China. Therefore, Japan paid the most attention to controlling this area. As a plain area and an important grain-producing region, the people in this area were more compliant with the rule. After all, farmers with a spirit of resistance had long been killed or exiled to the northern mountains by the Yangban (government officials).

Secondly, the areas with relatively good order were north of the Han River and south of the Taedong River. This area had almost no flat land and was isolated from the outside world. Therefore, the Japanese army adopted a rule method of cooperating with local wealthy families. As long as it did not hinder the Japanese army from building railways and highways in this area, the Japanese army would not harass the local people.

The area with relatively good order was along the Seoul-Pyongyang-Sinuiju railway line. This was a land route that the Japanese valued for entering Manchuria, so there was a strict military and police management system in place for the area. Villages that could not obey the Japanese army were often relocated to other areas. Under this forced security management, the social order here was at least good on the surface.

The areas that the Japanese army could not control, and even the Joseon Dynasty could not maintain its rule over, were the inland areas of North Hamgyong Province and South Hamgyong Province (also known as Pyongan Province) in northeastern Korea. This area was originally controlled by Korean militias and civilian groups, but as the Japanese army intensified its crackdown on anti-Japanese forces in northern Korea, these forces eventually united under the banner of the Korean Volunteer Army.

Through the land reform movement, the Korean Volunteer Army completely controlled the local population. Although the land reform caused some landlords to turn to the Japanese, these landlords, after losing their land, not only could not help the Japanese army control the area, but also needed the Japanese army's intimidation to protect their property. This made the Japanese almost lose their eyes and ears and security forces in the areas controlled by the Volunteer Army, and they became outsiders who were attacked everywhere.

With news of troop reductions in China, the North Korean troops lost interest in continuing their game of hide-and-seek with the volunteer army in the northern mountains. After communicating with the Chinese, they agreed to cease fighting on the condition that the Japanese army would not attack the mountains and the volunteer army would not attack coastal cities.

The Army's attempt to provoke renewed conflict in northern Korea is aimed at shifting public opinion in Japan towards Sino-Japanese cooperation, even at the cost of losing order in the northern coastal cities. Tamura initially opposed the plan, arguing it was too short-sighted. He believed it would only cause Japan to lose control of northeastern Korea and undermine the Navy's advocacy for Sino-Japanese reconciliation. Even if the Army weathered the immediate crisis, it would be creating trouble for itself if it couldn't quell the rising Korean nationalist sentiment.

But if we can't even protect it now, what's the point of talking about the future? The Navy's actions, step by step, are really putting the Army under immense pressure. In fact, apart from advocating for the removal of Yamamoto Gonnohyōe, Yamagata, this veteran, has no strategy to deal with the Navy. Even Tamura feels that Yamagata is indeed old and has lost the ability to control the Army's direction.

It's easy to say this to others, but when it comes to himself, Tamura couldn't find a solution either. The army's strategy was clearly out of sync with Japan's national strength. No matter how much the army proclaimed that its strategy was good for Japan, Japan's national strength couldn't support the army's continental policy, so it couldn't force the entire country to follow the army's strategy.

Sino-Japanese reconciliation is indeed a feasible step for the navy's maritime policy. After all, it would be impossible for China to rebuild its navy in less than one or two decades, so at least for now, Sino-Japanese reconciliation is beneficial to the navy. The navy's current plans are all centered around Japan's national strength, which naturally wins the support of most people.

Therefore, Tamura was well aware that the new path suitable for the army was actually to follow the navy's plan and then compete for the army's dominance in the Asian alliance. However, this would mean that the army would have to completely abandon the Yamagata line and completely defeat the Choshu faction. Otherwise, he would not have allowed the army to embark on this new path.

Before the Army changes its obsession with the continental policy, expecting it to accept the concept of an Asian alliance is clearly wishful thinking. Therefore, he had no choice but to temporarily accept the calls within the Army to retaliate against the Navy. This North Korea plan was a forced concession; success would alleviate the Army's problems, while failure could correct its mindset. So why not do it?

The army's clandestine plans went unnoticed by the Yamamoto cabinet. Although Japan's diplomatic stance of reconciliation with China led to some improvements in bilateral trade relations, this independent foreign policy naturally provoked discontent among the major powers. In particular, Britain and France expressed their unease about the Sino-Japanese relationship to the Japanese government, believing that such reconciliation might violate the principle of unity among the great powers.

Foreign Minister Nobuaki Makino was dismissive of the reaction of the British and French ministers to Japan, because it seemed that it was Germany, not Japan, that first violated the principle of unity among the great powers, followed by Russia and the United States, and then Japan. Now, the great powers were only talking to Japan about this matter, which was clearly an attempt to interfere in Japan's diplomacy.

Although Makino is not optimistic about reconciliation between Japan and China, since China is the only unclaimed territory around Japan that it can expand into, Japan will inevitably have to ask China for land if it wants to develop, which means that there is actually no possibility of reconciliation between Japan and China.

However, as a diplomat and political elite, he also believed that short-term Sino-Japanese cooperation would benefit Japan's development. After all, Japan is the most populous country in Asia and has the largest land area. Therefore, Sino-Japanese cooperation would help Japanese businesses access the Chinese market. After all, a country's expansion requires strength; courage and slogans alone cannot expand its territory.

Therefore, Makino chose to evade the questions raised by the British and French ministers, and instead formally raised the issue of treaty revision with the British. After all, according to the British pre-war promise, when Japan went to war with Russia, Britain would consider revising the unequal relationship between Japan and Britain.

The Black Ships incident of 1852 forced Perry to open Japan's doors, leading to the revision of the Treaty of Kanagawa in 1854. This was Japan's first unequal treaty and the starting point for the fall of the shogunate. After the establishment of the Meiji Restoration government, the Japanese government consistently sought to revise the treaty, with the main objective of abolishing extraterritoriality and achieving tariff autonomy.

In July 1894, Japan and Great Britain signed the Anglo-Japanese Treaty of Commerce and Navigation, stipulating that the treaty would take effect five years later and abolish extraterritoriality. Subsequently, all the other countries and Japan signed new treaties. In July 1899, Japan finally abolished extraterritoriality in Japan. This actually indicated that Japan launched the Sino-Japanese War to demonstrate its strength in maintaining order in East Asia to Britain, given that July 1894 marked the beginning of the war.

In 1911, the treaties of commerce and navigation signed by Japan with various countries expired, and new treaties needed to be signed with these countries. This was also a good opportunity for Japan to completely regain its tariff autonomy. The reason why Komura Jutaro actively promoted the war against Russia was that he hoped to use this achievement to force the British to make concessions, because only if the British made concessions would other powers make concessions.

Reclaiming all of Japan's rights and abolishing all unequal treaties was an achievement considered the highest honor by Japan's diplomatic elite. For Makino to gain the lead in treaty revision at this time was a dream come true. After all, Komura Jutaro had done so much work, but the final fruits fell to him—a stroke of luck indeed.

However, Makino also knew that if the Navy hadn't politically suppressed the Army, he wouldn't have been able to compete with Komura, given Komura's significant contributions to the war against Russia and the Army's strong support. But now the Army was preoccupied with its own problems and naturally couldn't help Komura retain his position in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

What Makino regrets is that, because the Navy played a significant role in supporting his appointment as Foreign Minister, he has to listen to the Navy's opinion on the issue of treaty revision. In reality, it is Hayashi Nobuyoshi's opinion, since the other members of the Navy only want to abolish Japan's unequal treaties with foreign countries and have no other ideas. Only Hayashi Nobuyoshi has his own independent diplomatic approach, which does not completely overlap with Makino's.

Lin Xinyi advocated that this revision of the treaty should be done in conjunction with China, not only to resolve Japan's tariff autonomy issue, but also to resolve China's tariff autonomy issue, and on this basis, to establish a Japan-China customs union area to lay the foundation for a future Asian customs union.

If Hayashi Shin-yi's suggestion only consisted of the first half, it would be a nonsensical diplomatic policy. However, with the addition of the second half, Makino also admitted that it was indeed a rather ambitious plan. If successful, it would create a close-knit internal trade zone within Asia. For this grand goal, Japan relinquishing control over tariffs on China would not be a problem.

The only problem is that this Asian customs union is too ambitious. Makino feels that Japan's strength is insufficient to handle it. Let alone an Asian customs union, the very establishment of a customs union between Japan and China would be enough to cause discontent among various countries. Japan doesn't have the power to challenge the entirety of Europe on its own.

Therefore, Makino, who was considered relatively radical in international relations in the past, has been more cautious on this issue of treaty revision, and dares not express his personal opinions too much, so as to avoid being blamed for a breakdown in negotiations.

As for the British and French ministers, the new Japanese foreign minister seemed somewhat perfunctory, not as frank as the previous foreign minister, Komura. Although the Japanese advocacy of leaving Asia and joining Europe seemed ridiculous to them, Komura Jutaro's frankness made them feel that Japan and small European countries were not so different after all.

However, the new Foreign Minister Makino was not frank enough about Japan's position in the East Asian order, nor did he show any determination to support Britain and France in maintaining the East Asian order. This led the British and French ministers to further believe that the reconciliation between Japan and China was probably not, as the Japanese claimed, to maintain peace in East Asia, but rather to counter the order established by the great powers in East Asia.

As for the negotiations between the British, French, and American ministers in China and the Chinese side, they were even less successful than those with Japan. Unlike Japan, where they could at least find a foreign minister to negotiate, China had more than one department responsible for foreign affairs and a foreign policy maker. Not to mention the differences between the Beijing government and the Wuhan regime, the differences between the Beijing government and the National Assembly alone, and the differences in foreign policy within the Beiyang clique, were already making the ministers of various countries dizzy.

To the great powers, the current Chinese government was even more chaotic than during the Qing Dynasty. At least the Qing Dynasty had a single ruler, while the current Chinese government could not possibly find a political figure to completely centralize power. The foreign ministers considered it a miracle that China had not yet erupted into civil war, because these fragmented military and political groups were utterly incapable of effectively unifying the nation's administrative and judicial powers. According to these Europeans, in any other country, these military and political groups would have already fought each other and declared independence.

Only these Chinese, no matter how dissatisfied they were with the Beiyang government and the Wuhan regime, and the fact that various local military and political groups still claimed to be forces obeying the will of the people and maintaining national unity, were truly advocating for independence. The Manchus and Mongols, before Emperor Guangxu's abdication, did advocate for independence, but after his abdication, these voices disappeared. Clearly, these so-called separatists had no desire to bear the consequences of independence.

Chapter 730

Author: Fuchun Mountain Residence Number: 4965 Comments: 0 Update Date: 2023-09-08 20:43:00

After the East Asian War ended, Europeans named it the East Asian War, not the Russo-Japanese War or the Sino-Russian War, because the war had completely drawn in East Asian powers and demonstrated the war potential of Japan and China. Even the Koreans had some good results in Jilin.

The outcome of this war essentially told the major powers that, apart from a few major powers like Britain, France, Germany, and the United States, the other so-called great powers were no longer able to make their voices heard in East Asia. In fact, even the French abandoned their interference in affairs north of the Yangtze River, choosing instead to support Britain in those regions.

The French knew that their mobilization capacity in East Asia was less than that of Russia. Compared to Russia, the French navy had too many interests to protect in its coastal waters and could not possibly send its main force to East Asia to confront the Japanese. As for the army, it could not mobilize hundreds of thousands of troops to the Far East by rail like Russia could.

Therefore, the French government is not concerned about whether its interests in China have been violated, but rather whether its French colonies in Asia will be seized by Japan and China in a joint effort. Overemphasizing French interests in northern China will obviously provoke hostility from Japan and China, and may trigger a second East Asian war, in which case Japan and China may target France.

The French felt this sense of crisis because the Japanese attacked the Russian fleet at Cam Ranh Bay, refusing to acknowledge that it had offended French interests. Furthermore, the Japanese fleet's attack on Cam Ranh Bay stemmed from its naval base on Hainan Island, not Taiwan, which made the French realize the danger. If Japan and China denied France's right to rule over French Indochina, then France would have no power to defend this colony.

As a result, when the East Asian War ended, French involvement in Northeast Asian affairs decreased sharply. The French minister to China also became much more polite to diplomats in Beijing, no longer threatening the Beijing government in the name of Paris to accept things. After the Boxer Rebellion, French diplomats almost treated Beijing as their subordinate unit, issuing notices rather than conducting diplomatic consultations.

However, after Russia lost its interests in the Far East, the French finally realized that France alone could not force an East Asian region with shared interests to submit. Even if the Franco-German conflict in Europe had not escalated, France would not have the strength to wage a major war on the scale of East Asian conflict in the Far East.

The French government and diplomats are pragmatic. Although the French pride does not allow them to bow down to people of Asian descent, they are quite conscious of their behavior and do not bluff like the British.

While British diplomacy is renowned for its flexibility, this flexibility is confined to Europe. When dealing with countries and peoples outside Europe, British diplomacy typically employs deception and intimidation. Japanese diplomacy is essentially modeled after the British, but the Japanese are not as adaptable as the British gentlemen. While the British, upon realizing their deception and intimidation have been exposed, will obediently adjust their strategies, the Japanese, for the sake of face, will persist until they hit a wall.

Jordan seemed to have spent too long in China and had somewhat forgotten the manners of being a British man. Even though the war had proven that China had undergone tremendous changes and that Britain was facing its biggest crisis in Europe since the Crimean War, he still clung to the hope that the Chinese were still the same Chinese and could not possibly become civilized in such a short time.

Therefore, after the outcome of the East Asian War, Jordan still tried to maintain Britain's dominant position in the East Asian order. In addition to trying to separate Japan from China from the unfavorable situation of their growing closeness, he devoted most of his energy to supporting the Beiyang clique led by Yuan Shikai.

Unlike intellectuals like Morrison, who believed democracy could restrain Wuhan, he favored supporting the Guangdong Tongmenghui led by Sun Yat-sen and the Conservative Party organized by Liang Qichao and others, attempting to confront the Wuhan Labour Party in Parliament. However, based on his decades of experience working in China, Jordan believed that East Asian problems ultimately needed to be resolved through force, and that democracy could not solve them.

Therefore, although he agreed to provide some support to Sun Yat-sen and Liang Qichao, his main hopes were placed on Yuan Shikai, hoping that this military strongman, recognized by diplomats from various countries, could accomplish something similar to Amir Nizam. As the restorer of the Qajar dynasty, Amir Nizam initially received British support and successfully curbed Russia's annexation of Persia. However, this Persian reformer later turned his attention to British interests in Persia, ultimately being abandoned by the British, thus interrupting Persia's modernization.

Although Amir Nizam's reforms in Persia failed, they were a successful diplomatic move for the British. It was Amir Nizam's reforms that prevented Russia from annexing Persia, forcing the Russians to turn to the Ottoman Empire's territories in the Balkans. The Russians believed that stopping their actions in Persia would help ease tensions with Britain, but unexpectedly, it led to conflict between Russia and France in the Balkans. Britain also took the opportunity to curb the Russian Empire's expansionist momentum since the Napoleonic Wars.

Jordan attempted to replicate the diplomatic maneuvering his predecessors had employed in Persia, sending Yuan Shikai's Beiyang clique to thwart any hopes of unifying China in Wuhan. A divided China was clearly incapable of gaining Japan's friendship. Jordan understood the Japanese ambitions better than anyone else: if China lacked the ability to defend itself, Japan would seize a large chunk of Chinese territory, just as it had annexed the Korean Peninsula.

As for Americans, they tend to favor Morrison's democratization approach on the China issue. Of course, this is the official opinion. For the American business community, American businessmen in China advocate maintaining the principle of unity among the great powers established during the Boxer Rebellion, while various financial groups in the United States are more concerned about opportunities in the Chinese market. It can be said that American diplomacy is divided and lacks a clear main direction.

The diplomatic actions of these foreign powers naturally led to divisions within the Beiyang clique. Yuan Shikai used his power to unite the military forces gathered during the Xiaozhan training period with students who had studied in the United States, and also inherited some of the Huai Army's military and political legacy, ultimately forming the current Beiyang clique. This group was essentially still dominated by the Beiyang military group, with students who had studied in the United States and Huai Army personnel playing a secondary role. Everyone recognized Yuan Shikai as their leader, and there was no real sense of unity among the various factions.

For example, Wang Shizhen, a senior figure in the Beiyang clique, had an influence on the Beiyang faction second only to Yuan Shikai and slightly higher than Duan Qirui and Feng Yuxiang. However, Wang Shizhen was loyal to the Qing dynasty and opposed the republic, as well as the Beiyang clique and Wuhan's alliance to force the emperor to abdicate. Although Wang Shizhen had considerable influence within the Beiyang clique, after experiencing fighting alongside the Wuhan army, the Beiyang generals, led by Duan Qirui and Feng Yuxiang, believed that cooperation with Wuhan was the only way out, because if war broke out, the Beiyang clique would undoubtedly be defeated.

Even Feng Guozhang, who was ideologically close to the Qing Dynasty, was unwilling to be buried with the Manchus. He once publicly admitted at an internal meeting of Beiyang generals, "Although the Qing Dynasty has been kind to us, it has actually been despised by the people. If we continue to fight against Wuhan under the banner of the Qing Dynasty, not only will the southerners oppose us, but the northerners will not support us either."

When Feng Guozhang made these remarks, the Manchus in Northeast China issued a declaration opposing the Qing dynasty's departure from the Central Plains. Even the Manchus were unwilling to support the Qing, so why should the Han Chinese serve it? Although a few princes attempted to bypass Emperor Guangxu and find him a stepson as an object of their loyalty, even the royalists did not support this.

Therefore, although the Beiyang clique became the most powerful force in the north after the abdication of the Qing emperor and seemed to have curbed the momentum of Wuhan's unification of the country, the factional struggles within the Beiyang clique were no less than those between the Kuomintang in the south. In other words, Yuan Shikai's prestige among them was greater than that of Sun Yat-sen, after all, Yuan Shikai had a Beiyang Army under his command, while Sun Yat-sen could only maintain party unity by relying on the Three Principles of the People.

However, as the influence of the Manchu remnants within the Beiyang clique continued to expand, their influence waned. This, in turn, led to Yuan Shikai's rising prestige and increased the cohesion of the Beiyang clique. The declining influence of these Manchu remnants within the Beiyang clique was inextricably linked to the suppression of the northern landlord class in Wuhan.

The reason why loyal Manchu supporters like Wang Shizhen were able to maintain their influence after the abdication of the Qing emperor was that the abdication only legally dismantled the Manchu rule; the economic system and grassroots social governance in the north remained almost unchanged. In other words, the same people who controlled the northern countryside during the Qing dynasty still controlled the northern villages today.

For these rural landlords, in order to ensure that the peasants would not question their power because of the change of dynasties, they on the one hand to proclaim that the old moral traditions were the best and that all new things were bad things that corrupted people's hearts; on the other hand, they openly declared that they would continue to be loyal to the Qing Dynasty and threatened the peasants that if they did not follow the rules, they would be beheaded when the army returned.

This conservative social atmosphere naturally influenced the Beiyang Army, making them feel that the Qing dynasty's fate was not entirely over, and thus they treated the loyal Qing loyalists with more courtesy. However, after the National Assembly in Wuhan further promoted land reform policies in the northern controlled areas, it issued a ban prohibiting anyone who retained Qing traditions from holding public office, and later extended the ban to their immediate family members.

In other words, if even one of your immediate family members was a member of the Qing dynasty's old guard, you were ineligible for public or military office, and even disqualified from running for parliament. With this prohibition, Parliament expelled dozens of representatives of the old gentry who supported the Qing dynasty, effectively eliminating the royalist party in Parliament. Liang Qichao, who supported a constitutional monarchy, was nearly expelled as well. However, after persuasion from other Kuomintang members and after Liang Qichao published a statement in the newspaper clarifying that he was neither a royalist nor a member of the old guard, the Labor Party representatives did not insist on expelling him.

The Labor Party's uncompromising fight against the royalists caused many opportunists to immediately distance themselves from the royalists. The term "Manchu remnants" was quickly stigmatized. When the Qing emperor had just abdicated, the Manchu remnants could still be recognized by some people in society, who felt that they still had integrity. However, after the Labor Party labeled the remnants as royalists and regarded them as the most reactionary feudal landlord group in China, few people praised their integrity anymore. Instead, they were regarded as stubborn reactionaries who were enemies of the people.

The old regime members attempted to follow the rules of the late Ming Dynasty, or rather, the dynastic changes of all dynasties, by maintaining their loyalty to the previous dynasty while ensuring that their descendants could find a way out in the new dynasty. However, because the Manchu Qing Dynasty was a foreign regime with a history of great crimes against China, their loyalty not only failed to bring them any prestige, but also aroused great disgust among the people who were beginning to feel national consciousness.

When public opinion launched a fierce attack on the royalists, the Beiyang Army naturally lost respect for these generals who claimed to be loyal to the Qing Dynasty. As for the soldiers below, they gradually accepted the propaganda of the Wuhan Army and developed contempt for these generals who did not help the Han people's revolution but longed for the Manchu emperor.

Although this was a good thing for Yuan Shikai, since he joined forces with Wuhan to force the Qing dynasty to abdicate, public opinion in Beijing had never been favorable towards him, and even some royalists in the army had reservations about him. But now, because of public criticism of the old guard, the army's thinking had been unified, and his reputation had improved somewhat; at least the calls for him to be called "the living Cao Cao" had decreased considerably.

Although public opinion of Yuan Shikai had improved somewhat, he still felt he was falling behind in the face of Wuhan's rapid development. Yuan Shikai's lament concerned Wuhan's railway construction. By 1908, China's railway network exceeded 9600 kilometers. Excluding the 2500 kilometers outside the Great Wall, at least 5000 kilometers of railway within the Great Wall were under Wuhan's control. The railway mileage within the Beiyang government's control area was less than one-third of that within Wuhan's control area. Furthermore, the Beiyang government was not a single administrator, while Wuhan had complete control over its railways; foreign investors only received dividends, not management rights.

Yuan Shikai was not very clear about whether other industrial and mining industries could make money, but the profits from railways were very high. The return on investment for domestic railways was about 8-9%, which far exceeded the 6% in foreign countries. In regions with highly developed transportation, such as Britain, railway profits actually fell to below 4%.

Therefore, the fixed revenue from railways had actually surpassed that of salt taxes, becoming a source of stable government growth, much like customs duties. If the Beiyang government wanted to continue its confrontation with Wuhan, it needed to suppress Wuhan through customs duties and railway profits; traditional land taxes and salt taxes were no longer sufficient to support the construction of a modern army.

Unfortunately, Beiyang lagged behind Wuhan in control of customs duties and railway construction. Although the British supported Beiyang, they were unwilling to provide any real financial support, even for things like railways and customs duties that were essentially taken from the Chinese. Instead, they used the guise of loans to try and force Yuan Shikai to pay interest later.

While it sounded appealing that the British Empire supported him, the substantial resources Jordan could offer were less than those of the Japanese. As Duan Qirui complained to him, "The British are completely trying to get something for nothing. They keep urging us to deal with Wuhan, but when it comes to what we want, they don't give us anything willingly."

Duan Qirui was not a general who advocated reconciliation with Wuhan. Although he supported cooperating with Wuhan to demand the abdication of the Qing emperor, he also believed that Wuhan was the biggest rival of the Beiyang clique and that the two sides could not maintain cooperation indefinitely. Therefore, he also supported accepting British funding to expand the army and seeking an opportunity to resolve the Wuhan issue by force. However, the stinginess of the British made Duan Qirui somewhat lose confidence.

In Yuan Shikai's view, the British were not stingy at all. If they had treated the Japanese the same way, they would have only given the Beiyang Fleet the opportunity to purchase arms, not provided grants or low-interest loans. Jordan's ability to secure a batch of grants for the Beiyang Fleet and his willingness to allow the customs surplus to be transferred to them was indeed an effort on his part.

Of course, compared to the German support for Wuhan, the British efforts seemed inadequate. Not only did Yuan Shikai not understand, but even the British and French couldn't comprehend why the Germans were so relentlessly supporting Wuhan. After all, for Germany, which lacked naval power, the more they invested in China now, the harder it would be to protect their interests there in the future. The British didn't believe that if war broke out in Europe, Wuhan would still faithfully abide by its agreement with Germany.